The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released its World Energy Outlook, a report that forecasts the future of global energy demand and supply. The IEA represents countries that make up more than 80% of global energy consumption. The report has some optimistic and some alarming findings for the world’s efforts to combat climate change.
According to the report, demand for fossil fuels, which are the main source of greenhouse gas emissions, will likely peak before 2030 and decline afterwards. This is due to the accelerating global shift to clean energy sources, such as solar, wind, hydro and nuclear power, that do not emit greenhouse gasses. The report estimates that in 2030 there will be 10 times as many electric vehicles on the road worldwide and 50% of the cars sold in the U.S. will be electric. The report also says that solar panels installed across the globe will generate more electricity at the end of the decade than the U.S. power system produces now.
The report projects that renewable energy will supply 50% of the world’s electricity needs, up from about 30% now. This is a remarkable achievement, considering that renewable energy accounted for only 10% of electricity generation in 2010. The report attributes this growth to the falling costs and improving efficiency of renewable technologies, as well as the increasing public and political support for clean energy.
However, the report warns that the pace of the transition will have to quicken considerably in order to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, and avoid some of the worst case scenarios in a changing climate. The report lays out a strategy for meeting that goal that includes tripling renewable energy, doubling energy efficiency measures and slashing methane emissions from fossil fuel operations by 75% by 2030.
Methane is a potent greenhouse gas that has more than 25 times the climate-warming potential of carbon dioxide, according to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Methane leaks from oil and gas wells, pipelines and storage facilities are a major source of emissions. The report says that reducing methane emissions is one of the most cost-effective and impactful ways to curb global warming in the short term.
Climate and anti-fossil fuel groups say the IEA’s methane strategy should be even more aggressive and call for an immediate and rapid decline of oil and gas production and consumption. They argue that fossil fuels are incompatible with a safe and sustainable future and that investing in new fossil fuel infrastructure will lock in emissions for decades to come.
The report says that an “unprecedented surge” in new natural gas export projects, including those in the U.S., are part of its projections. The report says that this will ease price and gas supply concerns traced to Russia’s decision to cut gas supplies to Europe after its invasion of Ukraine. The report also acknowledges that geopolitics is introducing more uncertainty into IEA projections, such as the fighting between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.
